Thucydides Trap : A China-US War Looms?

Thucydides’ Trap is a term which describes the tendency towards war when an emerging power threatens to displace a dominant power in the global order.

According to a Harvard University Belfer Center study, in 12 out of 16 of these recorded instances of power displacement, war has broken out.

That’s an ominous sentence but Thucydides’ Trap is a term often used when analysing US-China relations. So are the US and China headed towards a war?

Well… nobody quite knows.

What we can tell you is what resulted in a historic summit between the leaders of the two global powers and how it applies to you and I. Spoiler? It doesn’t look pretty.

Let’s set the stage for this historic visit. How did it come about it in the first place?

Interestingly, in a situation where US-China relations have been in free fall, much of the credit for pushing for the visit has to be attributed to Joe Biden.

The NYT’s scathing indictment on the state of the tech city doesn’t change the fact that Biden had the upper hand going in.

His counterpart and admittedly adversary Xi Jinping arrived to the newly clean San Francisco wounded.

Critically high levels of youth unemployment and negative Foreign Direct Investment for the first time since they started tracking the metric in 1998 meant Xi needed a win.

In recent history, taking an aggressive and increasingly suspicious stance towards China has been rewarded by voters in the United States.

This meant Joe Biden had to play a delicate balancing act between de-escalating tensions amid two global conflicts and America’s increasingly stretched spending while maintaining a tough image towards China.

What unfolded was a scene for those with a wicked sense of humour to enjoy, as Joe Biden called China a “competitor” and Xi Jinping a dictator.

Amidst all the fun and frolic however, considerable progress was made on certain fronts:

• The two countries agreed to restart direct military dialogue, an incredibly important step in avoiding an accidental war in a world where US and China ships cross each other on a daily basis.

• China bought Soybean from the US in a term now coined “Soybean Diplomacy”

• Talks of another summit and meet between the leaders have commenced but no date has been specified.

Feeling underwhelmed? You should be. No progress was made on the most contentious issue between the global powers : Taiwan.

The two nations continue to disagree on the fate of the tiny economic powerhouse with Xi Jinping continuing to attest to his plan to Chinese re-unification deeming Taiwan to be a part of his personal legacy!

Meanwhile the US understands its responsibility to protect Taiwan’s sovereignty unless it wants to undergo a diplomatic coup in the region.

What does it all mean for you and I?

We continue to live in a world at a higher risk of military conflict between the global powers than people want to admit. Sanctions continue to cripple strategically crucial industries in both nations with corporations like Apple and Nvidia playing a delicate dance of mutual appeasement.

But for now, soybean farmers can celebrate